UK economic upturn solidifies and prospects brighten for recruiters - City Comment
12 September 2013
During the past month there has been a steady stream of positive economic data with indicators virtually all turning unanimously upwards and forecasters upgrading growth forecasts for the UK, even tempting the Chancellor effectively to declare that ‘Plan A’ is finally working to recover the economy.
Thu, 12 Sep 2013 | By Sue Dodd, director, Agile IntelligenceDuring the past month there has been a steady stream of positive economic data with indicators virtually all turning unanimously upwards and forecasters upgrading growth forecasts for the UK, even tempting the Chancellor effectively to declare that ‘Plan A’ is finally working to recover the economy.
Perhaps so, certainly we are in an apparently sustained recovery but the catalyst for this is also indefinable. Growth apart, another key aim is to reduce public borrowings and this will be dependent upon the timing and extent of any rising tax receipts as recovery takes hold.
For now, more expenditure cuts are still being planned but a faster than forecast upturn may even ease this burden in time for a (very) modest softening of the Austerity policy just in time for a spot of General Electioneering. Meanwhile, if the nation’s balance sheet dutifully improves, it will also strengthen the Chancellor’s reputation as a ‘safe pair of hands’ and that could have interesting longer term political consequences.
A closer look at the latest labour market news reveals some fairly clear signals. With unemployment now falling month on month, claimants plummeting and employment levels on the rise, all points towards a steadily improving job market as both the real economy and confidence levels finally recover.
There are regional differences, so the recovery is not entirely widespread but the mood has changed subtly and people now expect life to improve again. Yes there may be some spare capacity uptake and productivity should be increased before mass hiring is seen but improved perceptions will result in rising prospects and the job market rarely sits in the rear-guard.
Already in 2013 there has been good resilience and some growth in temporary recruitment revenues, evidenced by government sources and company results. Latest UK workforce figures now show falling temporary employee numbers but increasing vacancy numbers, suggesting the early cycle temp rise may be replaced, as Kean Marden referenced last week, by a more normalised perm cycle. If churn begins to increase with candidate confidence, net job growth persists and the economic recovery spreads regionally, it may soon be safe (really) to predict better times ahead for the industry.
Perhaps so, certainly we are in an apparently sustained recovery but the catalyst for this is also indefinable. Growth apart, another key aim is to reduce public borrowings and this will be dependent upon the timing and extent of any rising tax receipts as recovery takes hold.
For now, more expenditure cuts are still being planned but a faster than forecast upturn may even ease this burden in time for a (very) modest softening of the Austerity policy just in time for a spot of General Electioneering. Meanwhile, if the nation’s balance sheet dutifully improves, it will also strengthen the Chancellor’s reputation as a ‘safe pair of hands’ and that could have interesting longer term political consequences.
A closer look at the latest labour market news reveals some fairly clear signals. With unemployment now falling month on month, claimants plummeting and employment levels on the rise, all points towards a steadily improving job market as both the real economy and confidence levels finally recover.
There are regional differences, so the recovery is not entirely widespread but the mood has changed subtly and people now expect life to improve again. Yes there may be some spare capacity uptake and productivity should be increased before mass hiring is seen but improved perceptions will result in rising prospects and the job market rarely sits in the rear-guard.
Already in 2013 there has been good resilience and some growth in temporary recruitment revenues, evidenced by government sources and company results. Latest UK workforce figures now show falling temporary employee numbers but increasing vacancy numbers, suggesting the early cycle temp rise may be replaced, as Kean Marden referenced last week, by a more normalised perm cycle. If churn begins to increase with candidate confidence, net job growth persists and the economic recovery spreads regionally, it may soon be safe (really) to predict better times ahead for the industry.
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