Recession risk ‘reduced’, suggest reports

The risk of the UK falling into a triple-dip recession is “greatly reduced”, according to research firm Markit’s analysis of its latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – while another research body suggests the UK economy will grow this year.
Tue, 5 Feb 2013

The risk of the UK falling into a triple-dip recession is “greatly reduced”, according to research firm Markit’s analysis of its latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – while another research body suggests the UK economy will grow this year.

The all-sector output index from Markit’s data rose from 49.8 in December, to 51.7 in January, with the score of over 50.0 indicating growth, and historical comparisons suggesting 0.1% economic expansion.

The 51.7 score was the highest in four months, boosted by the services and manufacturing industries, while the construction industry’s output fell slightly in January.

Markit suggests that rather than growing significantly, “the economy looks likely to merely regain the output that was lost in the final quarter of last year” when the UK suffered 0.3% contraction of its economy.

The report ‘Prospects for the UK economy’ from the Institute of Economic and Social Research released today suggests that the UK economy will grow by 0.7% in 2013 and 1.5% in 2014, with unemployment likely to stabilise at 8%.

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