Recruitment sector a hotbed of activity - City Comment

As you might expect during the height of summer, investors are bronzing themselves on the beach and the FTSE100 index has drifted sideways over the past fortnight. The recruitment sector, however, remains a hotbed of activity.
Thu, 8 Aug 2013 | By Kean Marden, head of business services equity research, Jefferies International

As you might expect during the height of summer, investors are bronzing themselves on the beach and the FTSE100 index has drifted sideways over the past fortnight. The recruitment sector, however, remains a hotbed of activity.

Robert Walters heads the leader board after encouraging interim results prompted a 19% share price rally.

Michael Page/PageGroup (+6%) has also been a strong performer following top-of-the-range Q2 revenue growth and its shares have now appreciated by more than 25% over the past two months. Although net fees declined by 3.8% in the quarter, this was better than analysts’ expectations, which were clustered around a 4-5% fall.

At the divisional level, Page’s main standouts were EMEA – where momentum recovered from a surprisingly weak start to the year, particularly in France and Germany – and the Americas – where growth accelerated despite difficult Brazilian macroeconomic conditions.

Elsewhere, Randstad's results initially appeared to be better than expected. However, on closer inspection they were flattered by a €10m (£8.6m) one-off relating to French subsidies and, after adjusting for this, profits were in line despite robust gross margin momentum. We found the tone of the group’s outlook comments a little curious – cautious in written form (the “stable trend” is expected to continue into Q3) but far more upbeat when we spoke to management face-to-face.

SThree’s interim results were also in line with expectations but its revised strategy has roused debate amongst the investment community. We believe a greater emphasis on large-account customers is inevitable as the group matures. However, a greater focus on “lifetime profitability” contract business is creating short-term headwinds, which may not reverse until 2014 and is reliant on repeated extensions.

Cost control has been a recurring theme for the industry throughout 2012 and 2013, but Michael Page has remained curiously tight-lipped about its initiatives. Our analysis suggests that the group’s fee earner/support staff ratio drifted back to its 2009 recessionary low last year, and it is becoming increasingly clear that senior management changes 12 months ago have been the catalyst for the simplification and standardisation of processes.

These moves should lead to a permanent step change in efficiency, and we calculate that a circa 150-man reduction in back office headcount could lower costs by £15m.

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