Migrant workers will continue to play a significant role during and beyond the recession.

It is very hard to know who to believe when it comes to migrant employment. Some commentators say that the number of migrant workers coming into the country has fallen sharply, while others claim that their continued entry into the UK will bring about a population increase that will be difficult to manage. So who to believe?

It is certainly true that the number of migrant workers coming into the country has fallen sharply recently, as the most recent official statistics show. This should not really come as a surprise. Poor employment prospects have made the UK less attractive to migrants, while tightening of the points-based system is making it more and more difficult for migrants to enter the UK.

However, when we dig a little deeper into the statistics we find a very different story. Over the year the number of migrants in employment has increased, while the number of UK nationals in employment has fallen by over half a million.

If the government wants the UK to become less reliant on migrant workers, it needs to do more to give UK nationals the skills employers want

Added to this, the latest CIPD/KPMG Labour Market Outlook (LMO) shows that almost one in 10 employers intend to recruit migrant workers in the third quarter of the year, despite the dramatic fall in labour demand. This is in an environment of less than two thirds (63%) of organisations intending to recruit during this period; a record low for the survey since it began in 2004.

The findings of the LMO clearly explain why employers continue to recruit migrants. Over a quarter of employers say that they recruit migrant workers to fill jobs because they cannot find British workers to do the job.

The report also challenges the assumption that most migrants take low-skilled jobs. Seventy-one per cent of employers intend to recruit highly skilled and skilled migrant workers, compared to 25% who will recruit low-skilled and unskilled migrant workers. This compares with our autumn LMO of 2005, which found that of those who intended to recruit migrants, 64% intended to recruit highly skilled/skilled migrants and 44% low-skilled and unskilled migrants. This shows that the number of employers looking to hire low-skilled or unskilled workers has nearly halved, while demand for high-skilled migrants remains robust.

Given the flexibility of the points-based system, we should expect to see immigration controls relaxed when the economy begins to pick-up.

This being said, we should not expect the same level of migrants entering the UK as before the recession, because of the more selective nature of the points-based system and the slower levels of economic growth projected.

If the government wants the UK to become less reliant on migrant workers, it needs to do more to give UK nationals the skills employers want. So long as employers demand highly skilled workers, migrant workers will continue to be relatively attractive - even in a recession when many British born people are jobless. The best way to provide ‘British jobs for British workers’ is to make British workers better equipped to compete in the jobs market, rather than raise barriers to skilled migrants.

• Gerwyn Davies
  Public Policy Adviser,
  cipd

key indicators

Recruiting migrant workers

• More than 25% of employers recruit migrant workers to fill jobs because they can’t find British workers to do those jobs
• One in 10 employers intend to recruit migrant worked in Q3 of 2009
• 71% of employers intend to recruit highly skilled and skilled migrant workers
• 25% of employers intend to recruit low-skilled and unskilled migrant workers