UK employers remain positive, albeit less so than previously, about their hiring intentions in Q4 with a balance of +2% saying they intend to hire staff in the quarter, according to the latest Manpower Outlook Survey.

However, behind the headline figure, the survey reveals a more complex picture.

• the first overall drop in hiring intentions from +3% in Q3 to 2% in Q4, since early 2009

• the old North-South divide is back, with prospects in many parts of the North looking increasingly bleak

• above the line running from the Humber in the North-East to the Bristol Channel in the South-West, employers are predicting negative hiring intentions of -2%, but below that line, employers have broadly positive hiring intentions +6%

• finance and business services have suffered a setback this quarter with a +6% Outlook, after a strong performance in the past two quarters, +10% in Q3 2011 and +16% in Q2 2011

Manpower UK managing director, Mark Cahill, says: “Six months ago it looked like the banks were going to lead the way out of recession and could even have filled the hole created by the slowdown in the public sector. The finance sector was hiring like nobody’s business, it was consistently the most optimistic sector post-recession but this has now fallen away quite dramatically over the summer.”

It’s not all bad news, however, according to the survey. Utilities is now the most positive sector, with employers in the water, gas and electricity industries reporting hiring intentions of +10%.

The East of England has the most optimistic outlook of any region with a score of +11%. The East Midlands reports +8%, the South-West +7%, and the South-East, Yorkshire and Humberside all expect +5%.

However, optimism in London has faltered in Q4, flat this quarter (0%) from +6% in Q3 2011. The heavy reliance on the finance sector in the capital helps explain this.

The outlook in Scotland continues its long-term negative trend at -1%, although this does represent an improvement from -7% in Q3, while Wales slides further into negative territory at -6% and North-West reports -2%. North-East of England falls sharply to -3% from +6% and optimism in Northern Ireland has slumped even more sharply, to -10% from +6%.

Cahill adds: “Clearly times are hard and we could be in for a period of sustained low growth. Employers have to adjust to the new normal and work out how they operate with far greater agility than ever before, post-recession.

“Many comparisons have been drawn in recent weeks with the crisis of 2008 economically, but when it comes to jobs, it’s important to note that we’re not yet approaching 2008 employment lows – this is a real positive.”