Forecasting tomorrow's world today
Predicting what business will be like in the next decade is the challenge for the Future of Work consortium. Vanessa Townsend investigates
Five major forces are changing the world and the way we do business - carbon (environmental concerns), demography, society, technology and globalisation. According to Professor Lynda Gratton of the London Business School, together these factors are the equivalent of the 19th century’s industrial revolution.
At the launch of Phase 2 of the Future of Work Consortium, which was held in London earlier this month, she explained that 2010 was at the intersection of the “perfect storm”, and it was vital for companies to prepare for that storm. She said that “more and more people have been asking what should we be doing, what is the future going to be and where is work taking us?”.
The FoW Consortium is a worldwide community consisting of Gratton’s research team and 43 member companies from around the world. In what Gratton termed “a process of co-creation”, over the next six months the diverse group of professionals from a wide range of organisations and industry sectors will forecast what the future of work will look like in 2020, and how organisations need to adapt their work practices to remain relevant and successful.
Globalisation is certainly a major factor changing the market for talent. Demographic trends show that by 2030, Asia will have a population of 5bn and Africa of around 2bn. Contrast this with today’s developed economies: Europe’s population will be less than 1bn, as will that of North America.
And in the developed world, the ageing population today will have huge implications on how firms will staff their organisations in 20 years’ time. It is forecast that the majority of the population in Europe and North America will be over 40. Conversely, countries such as India and China are growing rapidly. These young, expanding populations are having to address the growing urbanisation of their cities, with young workers wanting to be educated so that they can join the global talent force and in turn become the consumers of the future.
Technology, which is changing exponentially, will be used more and more to boost competencies and skills in developing countries. With the falling cost of processing power, mobile technology “will soon be something every person throughout the world can use”, Gratton claimed.
And not just using passively, such as watching television. Five billion people could be actively connected via computers and mobile phones, as access becomes cheaper and affordable. Gratton predicts that the world’s knowledge will be digitised by 2020. “It is vital [that organisations] hold onto the human side amid all these technological changes,” she cautioned.
Perhaps even more pressing, Gratton believes today’s business leaders have a blindspot about the role of the environment and the weight given to it by business. “Your future employees, Generation Z [10-13-year-olds], are going to be really worried about the environment and climate change,” she warned. This could seriously affect where and who they choose to work for, depending on an organisation’s green credentials and the way work processes are structured. This could lead to candidates of the future being more interested in working for smaller, ethical companies on a self-employed basis, in much the same way that news information agency Thomson Reuters currently employs its ’stringers’ (freelance journalists) around the world.
Another consequence could be that as employees become more transient in the workplace, only the really deep skills - developed skills that are not superficial or general - would be transferable in future work. “A jack-of-all-trades type of middle manager is dead. Learn to do something really well,” said Gratton. She said the aim was to no longer be a “shallow generalist but a serial master”.
For firms who plan to stick around long term, there is no single ’blueprint’ for business planning. In terms of leadership and talent management, people processes and practices, and people skills and aspirations, businesses should start thinking about how the environment, the younger generation of workers, advances in global networking technology and the rise of emerging technologies is going to affect their future workforce.
Whatever the next six months of debate will bring, it’s clear that ignoring the impending transformation is not an option.
Key facts
Following on from the findings of FoW phase 1 last year, four crucial themes emerged which the FoW phase 2 consortium will focus on over the next six months:
- How do executives support the development of a talent pool and leadership cadre which is ’future proofed’?
- What are the means by which organisations can build and support the communities, networks and ecosystems which are so crucial for the future?
- How do we craft the teams and collaborative working in a world which is increasingly virtual?
- What are the implications for those functions and groups tasked with delivering the future of work - in particular the learning, organisational development and HR functions?
The FoW 2 consortium includes representatives from BT Global Services, Mahindra & Mahindra, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis, Randstad Holding, Royal Bank of Scotland, SAP, Save the Children, Shell, Singapore Ministry of Manpower, Tata Consulting Services, Thomson Reuters and Unilever.
For information on how to be involved in future FoW discussions, contact Tina Schneidermann [email protected]
