A conference call hosted by Barclays Commercial Bank entitled ‘Road to Recovery’ this morning heard Barclays reiterate that commercial loans were available to “good business models”, according to managing director Ian Stuart.

Participants in the call heard Financial Times journalist Stefan Stern and leading business expert René Carayol offer their differing points of view about the recovery, the challenges for 2010, how to position business to take advantage of opportunities and the importance of cautious optimism.

Stern began by stating that 2010 would be difficult, as the recession was worse than we thought, saying that the Treasury predict that Chancellor Alistair Darling will say that the economy performed worse than expected in his pre-Budget report.

“Employment wasn’t as gloomy as we first thought, however,” Stern said. “Firms were taking measures [still hiring] to be ready for the upturn.” He pointed out that youth unemployment was much more of a worry though.

He was pessimistic about the early years coming out of recession. “Huge potential vulnerabilities remain — there’s the danger of businesses getting up off their sickbed too early,” he told the audience of more than 500 callers.

However, Stuart emphasised that banks were open for business and that smart businesses were definitely getting the loans. Carayol told the audience that he had travelled around the UK with Barclays for its Turning the Corner events and said that in every region the situation was markedly different.

Carayol said that firms should stay optimistic and talk to the banks earlier rather than later. “Every business will get the recovery it deserves. A recession is harsh on poorly-run businesses and generous on good businesses.

“Unfortunately, badly-run businesses are still being found out. Now might be a good time for reinvention, recalibration. The business plans you made two years’ ago won’t work today.”

Ending on a cautionary note, a caller from the construction industry warned that until next year’s General Election, public projects in particular would be put on hold. “The last thing we want to happen is for everything to stop moving,” agreed Carayol.