With general uncertainty over the UK’s future plus ongoing global trade and political disputes, Newton-Smith said: “I don’t think there’s ever been a time when politics and economics have been more intertwined.”

Speaking at the recent REC AGM, Newton-Smith noted that slower economic growth has taken place since the UK’s 2016 referendum on leaving the European Union, in parallel with “a slowdown in productivity”. An aberrant boost to the economy in March and April resulted from stockpiling supplies, when the UK’s exit from the EU was expected imminently, she explained.

“Secure supply” is what “retailers want”, Newton-Smith said.

A “big puzzle” for economists at the moment is around the continued growth of jobs in the UK, she said. However, the picture for job growth is becoming “more nuanced”, she added, pointing to continued growth in the numbers of niche jobs in niche sectors. “But jobs are still being created.”

Organisations are hiring experts instead of investing in businesses. “Business investment should be a lot stronger,” the economist said.

Among Newton-Smith’s other points:

• Household spending is not experiencing “stellar growth but will pick up gradually”.
• Pay growth has been “pretty strong” at 3.5% in the private sector, but she believes “pay growth has peaked; we don’t expect it to accelerate”.
• Housing rents are going up in areas of great job creation so relocating for jobs has “limited benefit”.
• She told the REC audience that with the UK in “uncharted waters”, the current period is “a particularly challenging time to be an economic forecaster”.

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